Download: Evidence-Based Investing SIG, January 2011
Topic: “Market Models”
We will take a look at several market forecast and market valuation models from CXO and other sources. Do they help predict turning points? What are they telling us about the next 6 months?
Click to view presentation 2011-01-Models
Topic: “Vindicating Indicating?”
We look at some widely followed indicators of future stock market performance: 52-week highs, valuation ratios, Leading Economic Indicators, GPD growth, Federal Funds rate, etc. Do any of them actually work?
available on my website December 2010
Topic: ““ETFs and Global Macro: Are We All George Soros Now?”
The rise of indexation and index-based portfolio strategies has profoundly affected the market itself. Eternal verities such as value investing, fundamental analysis, stock picking, small-cap premium are challenged by huge amounts of money sloshing from ETF to ETF at the click of a mouse. We look at the evidence and consider how individual investors might respond.
available on my website November 2010
Topic: “The Little Book of Safe Money”
Jason Zweig’s “The Little Book of Safe Money: How to Conquer Killer Markets, Con Artists, and Yourself”
available on my website Getting Started SIG, October 2010
“Putting (for) Green?”
Can conservative investors make money with put and call options? We take a look at strategies for writing covered options to provide income and reduce risk in actively managed portfolios.
Click to view or download the PowerPoint file
Here is the PowerPoint presentation file from the GettingStarted SIG 9 May. The topic was:
Buy and Hope – Can we do better?
We will continue looking at simple (and not-so-simple) timing strategies.
The prudent investor is conventionally advised to hold a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, periodically rebalancing to fixed asset allocations, and not to attempt to time the market. We are told to invest in “Stocks for the Long Run”, notwithstanding “In the long run, we are all dead.” The current financial crisis invites us to re-examine this conventional wisdom and look for alternative strategies that might be more effective in volatile bearish or sideways markets over the next several years. We look at research that suggests a simple timing strategy may improve returns and reduce risk.
See part one at http://tayara.com/hia/archives/139 (presented in April)
Part two http://houstoninvestors.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/2009-05-buyhope.pps (presented 9 May)
(Note: this is a temporary way of accessing the downloads. We are still working on a library to provide them in a more organized way.)